RiskBeacon.xyz

Live market regime risk for leveraged crypto positions

See whether current volatility, funding, crowding, and liquidity conditions are making leveraged crypto positions more fragile right now.

WalletPortfolio overview and cross-protocol risk queueAaveLending, health factor, liquidation bufferHyperliquidPerps, funding, orders, margin riskMarket RiskVolatility, funding, liquidation pressure
Model StatusiThis market-wide score is live-backed from current Hyperliquid derivatives data. It is a fragility and leverage-regime signal, not a price prediction engine.
Live
Live market regime view built from Hyperliquid perp market data across BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, and XRP. The score is a leverage-fragility model, not a price-direction forecast.
Updated May 10, 11:24 AM
Source: Hyperliquid perp data
Coverage: Basket: BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, XRP • live mark, funding, OI, impact, candles
Market data is healthy
Market Risk

Risk GaugeiA model-based estimate of how fragile the current market environment is for leveraged positions. It is not a direction forecast.

Low Risk
RiskBeacon.xyz
27/100
Calm
0 vs 24h
Liquidity Risk

Liquidity Risk GaugeiAn estimate of how vulnerable the market is to thin order books, slippage, and oversized flow. Higher means large orders or forced liquidations can move price more aggressively.

Elevated Slippage Risk
RiskBeacon.xyz
50/100
Watching
+3 vs 24h
Coin Focus

BTC fragility readiCoin-level read built from current price, funding, open interest, impact slippage, and recent candles. This is not a liquidation map.

Concrete coin context inside the broader market regime model.
BTCETHSOLHYPEXRP
$82,998$80,318$77,637Watch zone $80,193Cascade zone $78,156May 03May 07May 10
Positive or neutral funding suggests longs are paying, so downside continuation is the less forgiving path right now. The cards below show the live inputs behind each zone. These bands are estimated from funding, crowding, book impact, and recent price boundaries. This is not a liquidation map.
Why these zones
Each band carries its own live drivers and explanation.
Watch Zone$80,193
Recent 24h low
First nearby downside boundary.
Long crowding makes downside continuation the less forgiving path right now. This is the first boundary where crowding and weaker execution start to matter more.
Crowding biasLongs are paying
Funding is 3.00 bps per day and open interest is 2.78x of 24h notional volume.
Nearest boundaryRecent 24h low $80,193
This is the first nearby price boundary from the current 24h range. It is the first level to watch if the same pressure keeps running.
Execution qualityBooks still look tradable
Impact is about 0.12 bps and 24h volume is $873,508,168. This is only a liquidity proxy, not a liquidation count.
Cascade Zone$78,156
Recent 7d low
Less forgiving downside extension.
Long crowding makes downside continuation the less forgiving path right now. This wider extension is where the same pressure would look more unstable if the first boundary does not hold.
Crowding stretch2.78x OI / 24h vol
Open interest stays large relative to daily flow, so the same crowded direction can stay unstable after the first boundary breaks.
Extension boundaryRecent 7d low $78,156
This is the wider extension from the current 7d range if the first boundary gives way. It marks the less forgiving extension if price keeps pressing the same way.
Forced-flow slippageBooks still look tradable
Current impact is about 0.12 bps. That helps estimate fragility, but it is not a real liquidation map.
Current$80,770
24h Move0.6%
24h Range$80,193 to $81,038
Stress BiasDownside fragility
Watch Zone$80,193
Cascade Zone$78,156
Funding / Day3.00 bps
OI / 24h Vol2.78x
Impact0.12 bps
30d Realized Vol33.5%
Narrative

What is driving risk nowiA short reading of the current market regime based on the model inputs shown below.

Top live signals, compressed into one operator read.
Volume / Participation and open interest stretch are the main live drivers of leverage fragility right now.
BTC
Low Risk
BTC is +0.6% over 24h, with 0.12 bps weighted book impact.
ETH
Extreme Low Risk
ETH is +0.3% over 24h, and current funding keeps leverage quality more fragile than price alone suggests.
Alts
Elevated
3 alt markets are in the basket, and thinner books make them less forgiving than BTC or ETH right now.
Liquidity Read

What order flow can do nowiThis is a plain-language read on market depth risk: whether thin books and large flows are likely to move price more than usual right now.

Execution quality, slippage sensitivity, and forced-flow risk.
Liquidity is still tradable, but not forgiving. Weighted impact is about 0.44 bps, and bigger exits could still move price more than usual.
Thin books meanlarge positions can hit harder
If forced flow appearsslippage can widen quickly
What to watchclusters, exits, and size concentration
Signals

What is inside the scoreiEach driver contributes to the total market risk reading. Higher does not mean bearish; it means more fragile for leverage.

Additive regime model • 7 core drivers
Volatility
0/100
Flat
Realized major-asset volatility is 11.5% annualized, versus a 37.2% recent baseline.
Intraday Stress
0/100
-5 vs 24h
Current BTC and ETH day-ranges sit around the 0th percentile of the recent month.
Funding Heat
11/100
Flat
Weighted current perp funding is about 2.69 bps per day across the tracked basket.
Open Interest Stretch
75/100
Flat
Open interest is about 3.20x 24h notional volume, which is a good proxy for leverage crowding.
Liquidation Pressure
27/100
-13 vs 24h
This score blends range expansion, crowding, and book-thinness into a live cascade-risk estimate.
Volume / Participation
93/100
+14 vs 24h
Current 24h participation is 0.15x the recent daily baseline across BTC and ETH.
Breadth / Correlation
38/100
Flat
2/5 tracked assets are green over 24h, with return dispersion at 1.0%.
Market Context

Useful context right nowiA fast-scanning set of live market context stats built from current and recent Hyperliquid derivatives data.

Context stats • built for quick reads
BTC 24h
+0.6%
Live 24h move from current mark versus Hyperliquid previous-day reference.
ETH 24h
+0.3%
Live 24h move from current mark versus Hyperliquid previous-day reference.
Highest Since
<1 day
How long it has been since BTC last traded at or above the current level in the fetched longer history window.
30d Realized Vol
11.5%
Annualized realized volatility from live hourly BTC and ETH candles.
Intraday Range Rank
0th pct
Current day-range percentile for BTC and ETH versus the recent month of daily ranges.
Funding Heat
2.69 bps
Current OI-weighted daily funding burden across the tracked Hyperliquid basket.
OI / 24h Volume
3.20x
How large live open interest is relative to 24h notional volume across the tracked basket.
Liquidity Stress
0.44 bps
Weighted book-impact estimate from Hyperliquid impact prices versus current marks.
Breadth
2/5 green
How many tracked markets are positive over 24h. Narrow breadth usually makes leverage quality worse.
Positioning
Warm longs
Simple live positioning read inferred from current funding and leverage crowding, not from a proprietary liquidation map.
Leverage Read

What this means for leveraged walletsiPlain-language takeaways for users running borrowed or margined positions.

The current regime is relatively forgiving for disciplined leverage.
Liquidity is not the main problem right now; direction and crowding matter more.
Volume / Participation is the clearest thing to watch if you are running borrowed or margined exposure.
Next Step

Check your wallet risk

Aave Wallet RiskSee liquidation buffer, break-even levels, and stress checks.Hyperliquid Wallet RiskSee maintenance room, funding drag, open-order risk, and liquidation distance.